Jorge Rey alerts of ‘historic’ temperature plunge for late August: What do the official models and AEMET say?

Jorge Rey, the popular Spanish weather forecaster known for his traditional cabañuelas forecasts, has highlighted a sharp and unusual drop in temperatures for the final days of August, describing it as historic and capable of overturning typical late-summer expectations.

His latest outlook indicates a dramatic cooling following weeks of heat above average, accompanied with strong storms.

Official forecasts and models support a sharp change in the weather?

The European model and AEMET’s mid-range guidance both support a clear shift towards cooler and more unsettling conditions during the last week of this month. However, Rey’s use of “historic” is stronger than official language and concerns weather watchers.

According to AEMET’s conservative latest three-week outlook The period between 24 and 30 August (updated in mid-to late August) is expected to see temperatures lower than the seasonal average throughout much of the interior, especially the western half. Forecasts also predict that rainfall will be above average in many regions for late August. The coast and the archipelago are likely to be warmer than normal.

You can also find out more about the following: ECMWF sub-seasonal outlook This picture is reinforced by the data. For the week of 24–31 August, it shows widespread negative temperature anomalies across the peninsula, generally in the range of 1 to 3 °C below the long-term average, with larger departures (up to 3 to 6°C cooler than normal) possible over parts of Extremadura, Madrid, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha and Galicia. This pattern is caused by a more mobile jet stream, and the influence from Atlantic systems. The subtropical ridge which dominated the first half of the month has been replaced with a wavy jetstream.

A notable deep Atlantic low is approaching in the near term. AEMET has described it as unusually intense for AugustIts effects are expected to bring additional cooling, rainfall (especially in northern areas), and storms starting Monday. This follows a period of instability and some notable temperature falls in northern and eastern areas around the third weekend of August, when maximums in parts of the Cantabrian region and Castilla y Leon dipped toward or below 20 to 25°C in places, values that felt decidedly unseasonable after the preceding heat.

Bottom Line

There are solid models and AEMET that support a change in patterns: cooler than average temperatures for late august in many inland areas and western regions, an increased risk of storms and rain, and a break away from the intense heat earlier weeks. It depends on where the exact drop occurred and what the final numbers were. It is not uncommon for Atlantic systems to transition in the late summer. However, the combination of an extremely low level and projected negative anomalies could cause a significant and sharp change during the final days.

Expats who have booked holidays should keep an eye on the latest AEMET weather warnings. They are particularly concerned about thunderstorms, strong winds and hail in the east and north. Many inland areas will also feel cooler as the month of August ends.