The Spanish state weather agency (Aemet), has issued a warning about “very heavy rains and persistent rainfall”. This is expected to start late on Wednesday, 8 October, and continue until at least Sunday.
Aemet reports that “an Atlantic trough and associated cold mass will penetrate the west coast of the mainland, moving eastwards over the next few day to form vortices in it”, resulting in the storm Alice. The storm’s impact is expected to last several days. It will leave behind “very heavy, persistent rain” which will affect the Balearic Islands and the eastern third.
The state agency for meteorology warns of a high potential level of danger, as the showers could lead to flash floods and local flooding in low lying areas and streams.
The first showers are expected in the east of Castilla-La Mancha and inland Valencia, while from the early hours of (Thursday 9 October) they are expected to spread to coastal areas of Catalonia and Valencia, and throughout the day to Ibiza and Formentera, Murcia, the eastern half of Andalucía and southern Castilla-La Mancha, without ruling them out in other areas of Castilla-La Mancha, inland Catalonia and the central system. Showers with thunderstorms are likely to accompany these showers. They may even reach very high intensity locally.
In Andalucía, Aemet has activated a yellow warning for rain and thunderstorms for Thursday in different parts of the provinces of Jaén, Almeria and Granada. It will start at 11:00am and finish at 11.59pm, for an accumulation of 15mm within one hour.
Although the warning does not affect Malaga or the Costa del Sol at the moment, the probability of showers in the province has existed since midday on Thursday and continues on Friday, with a greater probability during the morning and mainly in the easternmost part of the province, as José Luis Escudero pointed out on his SUR blog Tormentas y Rayos. Over the weekend there is no forecast for precipitation.
In fact, Aemet forecasts that on Friday the heavy showers will become less widespread and will be reduced to the southeast of the Spanish mainland, without ruling out the possibility of them reaching the rest of Alborán sea areas and the Balearic Islands, with the areas around the cape of La Nao and Cape Palos being the most likely to reach locally very heavy intensity. The Alice ‘Dana’ is expected to gradually diminish in intensity on Sunday.
The state agency for meteorology warns however that there is high uncertainty regarding the position and interaction of Alice with the surface flow that will determine areas of greater adversity every day. Therefore, it recommends a thorough monitoring of updates to the forecasts of warnings during the next few weeks.
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