Nearly £200,000 of fuel goes unpaid every day in UK as petrol prices squeeze motorists

An £80 or £90 tank can disappear within seconds, with the loss often falling on independent garages rather than an oil giant. Data from the industry suggests that people are being reported as first-time offenders, not repeat offenders. 

The £90 drive-off does not land with the oil company

The fact that a petrol station is branded with the BP, Shell or other brand colors does not mean that it belongs to those companies. Most are operated by independent operators, who buy the fuel in advance of it reaching a customer. Ben Lawrence, director of Lawrences Garages which operates five stations in Norfolk & Hampshire, says that some motorists assume the large energy companies will cover their losses. “When someone drives off after taking fuel worth almost £100, it’s hitting us, not the oil companies,” he said. “We’ve bought it.”

Forecourt operators are directly affected by the losses, rather than having the cost borne solely by large corporations. 

How the £200,000 daily estimate was calculated

Forecourt Eye, which prevents fuel-crime incidents, reports that unpaid fuel incidents increased by 20 percent in the five-month period following the Iran conflict beginning on February 28, as compared to the previous five-month period. Its industry analysis It used what was described as a sample of 550 gas stations. The sites reported an average of 181 incidents per day, up from the previous 158.

Extrapolating across the approximately 8,350 forecourts in the UK, it was estimated that incidents increased from 2,400 to 2,872 per day. Volume increased by 24%, from 87,800 to 108.900 litres per day. Higher pump prices pushed the estimated value up even faster, from £131,000 to £194,000 a day. If maintained for a year, that would amount to approximately £70.7 million in fuel initially stolen. This is an estimate of the commercial industry, not a total recorded by national police.

The number of first-time incidents is increasing faster than the number of repeat incidents

Forecourt Eye has seen a 23% increase in incidents that involve people classified as first time offenders. The volume attributed by Forecourt Eye also increased by 26%. The corresponding increases for repeat offenders were 17 percent and 20 percent. This difference confirms the idea that the problem has spread beyond repeat offenders or regular gamblers. Lawrence said that his experience showed that the rising cost of living has widened people’s perception beyond the known repeat offenders and regular gamblers.

It’s possible that not all tanks left unpaid are driven off deliberately

These figures are a combination of two categories. Drive-offs are people who leave without paying. In a “no method of payment” situation, a client enters a shop and says they can’t pay. This could be because their credit card has failed or that they don’t have another option.  Forecourt Eye’s own business includes recovering these outstanding payments, meaning some of the £194,000 may subsequently be collected. The initial amount is better described as an unpaid fuel price rather than a permanent theft loss. 

Petrol at 16p multiplies every payment missed

Another sharp rise in fuel prices has also coincided with the increase. On July 31, the RAC put average UK petrol at 160p a litre, the highest since November 2022. Diesel had reached 179p, while filling a typical family petrol car cost approximately £88. It is easy to understand why fuel unpaid grew by 24 percent, but its value increased by 48 percent because of the increase in fuel prices.

In September, Forecourt Eye will provide free access to its new app, which allows users to record crimes, manage evidence and report them to the police. Forecourt Eye will be available to petrol stations without the need for facial-recognition camera. Operators have the option to add Facewatch’s live facial-recognition technology, potentially combining number plate recognition outdoors with face matching within the shop. 

Fuel prices are still high, and forecourts have received new reporting tools. The next figures will reveal if the current surge is beginning to slow down, or if some of the first-time offenses become a repeat offender problem.