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Andalucia’s streets will be awash with colour from Palm Sunday, March 29, 2026 to Easter Sunday, April 5.
According to ancient tradition, Semana Santa Every day must be marked with processions.
Every Spaniard, however, dreads bad conditions. It is not possible to expose the precious statues of saints to rain. The processions are cancelled if clouds appear. Months of preparation have been wasted.
What does the weatherman say?
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Experts are unsure. This is not surprising. AEMET (Spain’s official weather agency), thinks it’s possible that Holy Week will be wet.
The forecast for the week of 23-29 March is a bit more uncertain than usual, which is to be expected with such a long-term forecast. The information available indicates that rain could continue to fall in the Iberian Peninsula’s east and south.
Thank you for your comment.
Some meteorologists are brave enough to make comments on social media. They provide clues about the weather.
Expert Juan Antonio Salado of the Spanish Meteorological Association AME suggests that spring weather is likely.
He’s not exactly putting his neck on the line, is he. We aren’t any the wiser.
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Forecasts indicate that there’s a 40%-95% chance of rain between Friday, March 20 and Sunday, March 22, according to some forecasts.
Meteored experts (a leading platform that provides meteorological information and technology) predict cloudy skies with temperatures ranging from 19C to 9C for Good Friday.
What can we learn from the past?
According to Malaga’s climatological data, the week of processions falls between late March and earlyApril, with a rain probability ranging from 15% to 25%.
In spite of this, some years are more unstable than others, including 2024. It is historically characterized by heavy rainfall and a number of procession cancellations.
READ MORE This day in history: the British siege which changed history, and why Semana Santa procession are cancelled so easily
In 2025, bad weather prevented the processing of images of Christ the Risen and the Queen in Heaven in Malaga.
On the other side, we can see some years with clear skies and very few incidents.
The Holy Week of 2023 was one of the most memorable and well-remembered. Almost all the brotherhoods completed their penitential processesions without incident.
Spring is expected to start on March 20 and be warmer than usual across the majority of the nation. Chances range between 50% and 70% depending on region.
The Balearic Islands register a 70% chance of temperatures above the average, while the rest Iberian Peninsula is at 60% and the Canary Islands along with the southwest part of the peninsula are at 50%.
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There is no trend in rainfall. However, the Canary Islands and the southwest part of the peninsula are likely to have a slightly drier spring than normal.
Even though the nights can be cool, the afternoons in some provinces such as Ourense, Lleida and Tarragona are usually mild.
This “20-20 Rule” can be a good indicator of weather conditions. This rule combines temperatures over 20C on average with fewer than 20% of days that are rainy.
This criterion is met by several coastal areas, including Malaga, Almeria and Murcia. Alicante, Tarragona and the Canary Islands also meet this criteria, increasing your chances of experiencing pleasant weather.
Despite the fact that these regions are generally blessed with good weather conditions, showers can occur during Holy Week.
No one knows, in a nutshell!
The Olive Press is a great source for Andalucia News.
