The connection between climate change, worsening turbulence and planes

BBC stated on Thursday, July 30th that deaths as a result turbulence are extremely rare. Although there are no statistics available, it’s estimated that there have been four deaths since 1981.

The opposite is true for injuries. Since 2009, 207 people in the United States have suffered severe injuries due to plane turbulence.

The National Transportation Safety Board confirmed this figure. Cabin crew are most at risk of injury from turbulence, as the statistics confirm. 166 people were injured and 66 of them were airline staff.

Experts warn that climate change may be linked to worsening weather patterns, and that it is possible for the turbulence to get worse, as temperatures rise and the wind patterns in upper atmosphere become more frequent and intense.

Double and triple the severity of severe turbulence

Professor Paul Williams of the University of Reading is an atmospheric scientist. He says that we can expect severe turbulence to double or triple in the coming decades. told BBC.

Williams stated that “for every 10 minutes severe turbulence now, this could increase to 20, 30 minutes.”

This statement makes us wonder if more severe turbulence will make aeroplanes more dangerous to fly and passengers.

The BBC reported that estimates show there are around 5,000 severe or more severe turbulence incidents every year. This is out of the 35 million flights worldwide that take off.

The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has stated that by 2023, 40% of all serious injuries suffered by passengers while flying will be due to turbulence.

Since 1985, the severity of turbulence on routes connecting the UK with the US, Canada, and the Caribbean has increased by 55 percent.

Scientists studying climate change say that it is likely to cause severe turbulence to occur in other areas.

Prof Williams explains that climate change causes the temperature difference to be greater. “Which is driving a more powerful jet stream.”

There will be more accidents and also more use of seatbelts

The Federal Aviation Administration released a statement Turbulence can be defined as the regular and frequent movement that air makes when it comes to an aircraft. It can happen suddenly and without warning. The main causes are atmospheric pressure, jetstreams, cold or hot weather fronts, and thunderstorms. It can occur even when the skies are clear.

This type of wind movement occurs more frequently. The American Geophysical Union published in 2023 a report Saying skies are 55% bumpier than 40 years ago.

The AGU stated in a separate report that “the increases in turbulence were consistent with climate change effects.” report. The warmer air due to carbon dioxide emissions increases wind shear, which in turn strengthens clear-air turbulent conditions in the North Atlantic.

The conclusion is, however, that greater and more intense turbulence won’t actually be more hazardous nor will it cause more passenger injuries.

Experts say that even if the turbulence becomes more frequent and severe, it is not a cause for concern.

 “It is usually nothing more than irritating,” said Captain Nathan Davies. He is a pilot for a commercial airline. However, it may mean that you spend more time seated with your seatbelt in place.