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Spain is enduring a summer of heatwaves that seem to be never-ending. Yet, a huge climate driver has already erupted across the Pacific and looks set for rewriting the rules in winter 2026-2027.
Meteorologists put the chance that this Super El Niño will still be influencing European weather well into spring 2027 at an unusually high 95 per cent.
The extra heat that is building up in the tropical Pacific works like a giant atmosphere engine. This heat pushes powerful currents of air, shifting high and low pressure systems around the globe. It eventually reaches Europe and the jet stream, causing weather patterns to change. It is predicted to reach its peak between November-January, during our coldest month.
By November–December, this El Niño will be the strongest any living person has ever experienced. The El Nino is expected surpass every previous year in a large margin.
Combined with ongoing climate change, global temperatures could briefly reach nearly 2°C above… pic.twitter.com/zO0pRntnGA
— Colin McCarthy (@US_Stormwatch) August 15, 2026
Two very different winter scenarios
The polar vortex – that massive whirlwind of cold air high above the Arctic – could become unstable. Arctic air will then spill south and bring weeks of frost, snow, and bitterly freezing nights to large parts of Europe.
In the opposite scenario, a more mild, greyer and wetter winter is produced, as many places have experienced in recent years. The extra warmth in the atmosphere causes temperatures to be higher than normal and leads to more rainy, unsettled spells.
In the coming weeks, as new model runs are released with more detail, it should be clear which version will win. Both the ingredients are in place for a season that is unusual.
Why Europe’s winter is never just about El Niño
Spain’s winters are also affected by the polar vortex, which is located high above the Arctic Circle. Sea temperatures in the North Atlantic and the exact location of the polar Jet stream. Super El Niño can tip the odds, yet those other players still decide the final score.
Readers on the Costa del Sol and inland Andalusia will remember the furnace-summer warnings earlier this year linked to the developing El Niño. Spain’s July 2026, which was the second-hottest on record and also the driest on record is covered in detail in our full report. Recent short-term changes, including the weekend storms and cooler air now moving across the country, show how quickly patterns can change even before the main El Niño peak arrives.
Official numbers right now
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center currently gives a greater than 90 per cent chance A very strong event is expected to continue through autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, with October-December carrying the most intensity. 95 per cent probability of reaching the “very strong” category. Around 69 percent of the forecasts point to a potentially historical episode stronger than anything recorded since 1950.
No human alive has seen an El Niño event this strong. No human has ever experienced an event like this.
Forecasts continue to project a 3.5-4.0°C ‘Super El Nino’.
Temperatures in the east Pacific are now widely 5°C above average, peaking at 6°C. pic.twitter.com/voKRoioBXT
— Met4Cast – UK Weather (@Met4CastUK) August 12, 2026
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