Sánchez at risk as Nato gamble sparks Trump’s ire

Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez left this week’s Nato summit with a smaller defence bill than the alliance’s other members, but Donald Trump warned the EU’s top leftwing leader that he would be made to pay in other ways.

After Sánchez’s resistance to a new spending target riled many European colleagues, the US president accused Spain of seeking a “free ride” and threatened to “make them pay twice as much” in tariffs to the US as part of a trade deal.

The US can’t hit Spain with tariffs targeted at it because they have to negotiate any deal with the EU. Trump’s comments were important because they signaled that he was targeting Spain and might use various tools to punish it.

That begs the question of whether Sánchez, who is renowned as a wily political survivor at home, has miscalculated on the international stage and pushed his luck too far.

“It’s selfish and reckless,” said a European Nato Diplomat. “We have all had financial problems, but he made it all about himself.”

Other allies complained about Spain’s inability to accept the ambiguity of the summit declaration and its long timelines. This would have softened Spain’s 5 percent GDP spending target.

Before Trump’s remarks, the Socialist Prime Minister thanked allies who respected “Spanish sovereignty” and let him opt out of the 5% goal. Accepting it, he said, would have been a “huge mistake” costing Spain €300bn over the next decade.

The Hague clash came at a time when he was weakening in his own country due to a whirlwind of corruption scandals. These include allegations against his brother and wife, as well as accusations against two of his former right-handmen for taking kickbacks from public contracts. All deny any wrongdoing.

The sense of crisis — including mounting calls from his critics for a general election — led to suggestions that Sánchez wanted to use the summit to change the subject.

In a public letter he sent to Mark Rutte last week, the Nato secretary general, he said he did not accept this “unreasonable spending target”. In an impromptu TV address on Sunday, he announced that Rutte accepted his position.

One conservative official said Sánchez was seeking a “Zelenskyy moment” with Trump, referring to the Ukrainian president’s Oval Office dust-up.

Michael Walsh, senior fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute said: “An encounter with Trump will get people’s attention. And in Spain, there are many voters who do not sympathize with Trump or his foreign policy.

“I think there’s a possibility that this was an intentional move and Sánchez knew it would blow up. He took the risk to distract himself from home.

One Spanish official said the Sánchez team was “unfazed” by Trump’s threat. When the Spanish prime minister wrote to Rutte last week, Madrid had already done the math on possible American retaliation, and determined that the threat of tariffs was not serious.

The EU would be affected by any US tariffs on products that Spain produces in large quantities, such as cars, iron and aluminium. This includes the 26 other EU members who have signed up to Trump’s 5 percent target.

Spain could target Iberian Ham and black olives instead, but the economic impact of these products is small.

He said that Trump did not mention Spain during the private Nato leaders meeting. The Spanish official said that Trump only commented on the matter when asked by a reporter at a later press conference. He called Spain’s refusal of committing to 5% growth by 2035 “terrible”, which deserved punishment as part of a trade agreement.

You can tell that they’re doing well. The economy is booming. [doing] Very well. “And that economy could be blown out of the water if something bad happens,” Trump said.

“Spain will see whether it is able to keep its promises by cutting back on financial spending.

By breaking ranks, Sánchez had drawn attention to the difference between Nato’s capability targets — real military gaps assessed by alliance experts — and the 5 per cent demanded initially by Trump and fashioned into an official target by Rutte.

“We knew we had to survive these days before taking stock. “He couldn’t stop himself”, said a second European Nato Diplomat.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said: “Spain will be able to keep its promises if it reduces financial expenditure.”

Trump could move on to another issue after Spain. In January, he seemed unsure of where he was when he called Spain a “Brics Country”. His words were also interpreted as a slap at Spain and a warning to certain enemies.

Sánchez is not only at odds with the Trump administration on defence. He has strained the administration’s patience by criticizing Israel’s assault on Gaza and attacking Silicon Valley’s “techno-caste” while courting President Xi Jinping of China. He is a strong advocate for immigration.

As the EU’s most senior leader on the left, he’s become a convenient icon of what the Maga Movement dislikes.

Walsh stated, “I am convinced that Trump will take retaliation.” He will put enormous pressure on the Spanish Government to conform to 5%. There is already a good chance this government could collapse because of the corruption scandals — and Trump will hope he can make that happen.”

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, in The Hague; and Carmen Muela, in Madrid.