Carnival looks safe – But Spain’s weather may turn nasty again by Easter

After weeks of relentless rain, strong winds and flooding across large parts of Spain, many people have been asking the same question: was this finally the turning point?

According to Jorge Rey, not quite.

The young forecaster from Burgos, who has built a strong following thanks to his use of the traditional cabañuelas method, says the worst of the recent weather has eased just in time for Carnival, but warns that Semana Santa could still bring unpleasant surprises.

Spain entered February with waterlogged ground in many regions, particularly in the south and west, where rivers were already under pressure after successive storms. Even now, any new rainfall continues to raise concerns.

Against that backdrop, Rey has been looking ahead to the coming weeks – and his outlook has drawn plenty of attention.

Early February delivered what was expected – heavy rain before a brief lull

Rey had warned that the first days of February would remain unsettled, and that forecast played out almost exactly as predicted.

The influence of El Niño, he explained, pushed Atlantic systems towards the peninsula earlier and more frequently than usual. As a result, heavy rain affected Galicia, Extremadura and western Andalusia, while snow returned to mountain areas and fell at lower-than-normal levels in the north.

However, Rey had also pointed to a change around 6–7 February, when Atlantic fronts would weaken and higher pressure would build over the UK. That shift has now occurred, allowing conditions to stabilise temporarily after weeks of disruption.

Carnival now looks calm – with only minor weather risks

With Carnival celebrations approaching, Rey’s message has been largely reassuring.

“Carnival was always going to arrive with relatively calm weather,” he said earlier this week. “Nothing too dramatic.”

That does not mean perfect conditions everywhere. He has still flagged cold air at altitude, bringing overnight frosts in inland areas, along with the chance of isolated storms along the Mediterranean coast.

Still, compared with the storms and flooding seen in recent weeks, the outlook for Carnival events across Spain now appears manageable — a relief for towns that depend heavily on tourism during this period.

March remains unstable – and Easter is where concern returns

Looking beyond Carnival,

believes March will remain unsettled.

Temperatures have already begun to rise slightly in early February, and he expects a further warming trend at the start of March. At the same time, new Atlantic fronts could bring rain back to western Spain and the Canary Islands around 4–5 March.

That pattern – mild spells followed by cooler, wetter days – is likely to continue. A short-lived high-pressure system around 12–13 March could offer another pause, but Rey says it will be brief.

By mid-month, around 16–17 March, stormy conditions could return to the southwest, affecting Extremadura, Huelva, Seville and Cádiz.

His most striking warning, however, concerns late March and early April. Rey believes a marked change in pattern could bring colder polar air southwards, increasing the risk of rain, falling temperatures and even snow during Semana Santa, particularly in northern and central Spain.

“A bad Easter in the north and centre, with a strong chance of snowfall,” he warned – a statement that has drawn attention, especially given his accurate early warnings ahead of extreme events such as Storm Filomena.

Spain’s national weather agency, AEMET, has also cautioned that winter conditions are not yet over, pointing to further rain, storms and snowfall in mountainous areas as February progresses.

Rey sums it up with a familiar proverb:“If Candlemas laughs, winter lasts; if it cries, winter ends.”

For now, Carnival has caught a break. Easter, however, is still shaping up to be far less predictable.