TRUMP’s tariffs have rocked the world and set the scene for an impending trade war that experts fear will inflict widespread economic damage – and Andalucia won’t be spared.
From April 9, all exports from the EU to the United States will be hit with a 20% tariff – a move that could cost the southern Spanish region up to €2.4 billion, with olive oil and table olives taking the brunt.
The region exported €3.1 billion worth of goods to the US last year, with nearly half coming from the agri-food sector. Olive oil alone raked in €860 million in 2024, making it the hardest-hit product.
It’s a big blow to a segment that has spent years expanding its market share, surpassing Italy even in recent years.
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Leaders in the industry warn that thousands more jobs are at risk. This is especially true for rural areas, where agrifood exports play a major role in local economies.
“It’s unfair competition,” said Rafael Pico from exporter association Asoliva, warning that countries like Turkey and Morocco – which only face 10% tariffs – will gain ground.
A dispute in 2018 led to the US imposing a duty of 31.5% on black olives. The new tariffs might push the total up to more than 50%, wiping out whatever is left of Spain’s share.
Olive oil cooperatives across Jaen, Cordoba and Seville are scrambling to find new markets in Asia and the Gulf, but the switch won’t be easy — or fast.
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Wines – including sherry – rice, vegetables, seafood and even natural stone have also been dragged into the dispute. Aeronautics exports worth €138 million in 2024 could also be affected.
Trump’s decision ending a 45-year-old duty-free deal between Airbus and Boeing raised fears of an expanded transatlantic trade conflict.
Although energy products such as copper and energy are exempted, ripple effects will be experienced across the board.
Andalucian manufacturers fear that the latest trade imbalance could push some sectors into a downward spiral.
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Not everyone panics. Some experts think that the high US consumer price and strong demand may be able to absorb any additional costs. A 20% tariff will not stop the sale of olive oil, said Juan Vilar, an agro-consultant.
Some warn, however, that Spain could be at a disadvantage to producers with lower wages and fewer standards of labour.
Andalusia’s farm unions are calling for an urgent EU settlement to protect the livelihoods and livelihoods of thousands in the region.
In response, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has unveiled a €14.1 billion aid package aimed at mitigating the impact on affected industries.
The aid package is designed to support sectors such as olive oil, olives, wine, and natural stone—key contributors to Andalucía’s economy that are now facing increased tariffs.