Is Costa del Sol prepared to face a tsunami disaster?

Costa del Sol residents are wondering what would happen if a large tsunami struck Spain. 

UNESCO statistics show that the entire Mediterranean, which includes the Costa del Sol faces a high risk of a Tsunami with waves over six metres in the next thirty years. Although La Junta de Andalucía has taken important steps with its 2023 Plan de Emergencia ante el Riesgo de Maremotos en Andalucía, the question lingers: how prepared is the Costa del Sol for such a catastrophe?

How would a Tsunami impact the Costa del Sol region?

Malaga could be devastated by a tsunami in 20 minutes if it originates in the seismically-active Alboran Sea. This is the westernmost region of the Mediterranean. The capital, as well as 13 other municipalities including Marbella and Fuengirola would be flooded by waves up to 6 metres high, which could penetrate 700 metres into the inland.

While the Mediterranean’s geography limits flooding compared to the Atlantic coast, where Huelva and Cádiz face potential waves on their flat lands of up to 12 metres, the Costa del Sol’s densely populated tourist hubs could face serious disruption. In Rincón de la Victoria, studies suggest there would be very minimal inland flooding, primarily only affecting beachfronts, but the rest of the region’s towns, from pavements to coastal businesses, could suffer.

Plan de Emergencia was developed in collaboration with the University of Malaga, and the Copernicus Programme, to map flood zones and vulnerability of buildings, allowing for precise emergency planning. Andalucía’s Atlantic coast bears a higher risk, with historical precedents like that of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami that ravaged Huelva and Cádiz. Antonio Sanz from La Junta stated that Andalusia is at a moderate but undeniable risk of seismic activity. Over 500 beaches and 800 km of coastline in the region show that it is important to be prepared.

What could trigger an emergency tsunami response in the future?

A magnitude 6 or higher earthquake detected by the Instituto Geográfico Nacional would activate the Plan de Emergencia’s pre-emergency phase. The impact of a tsunami could be predicted within 15 minutes by mathematical models including real-time simulators from University of Malaga’s EDANYA. The EsAlert system, or “112 inverso,” would flood mobile phones across the Costa del Sol with alerts, recommending people evacuate to high ground or upper floors of sturdy buildings, much like what happened in mid-July, when thousands of residents living close to the coast received warnings on their phones due to a 5.4 magnitude quake off the coasts of Almería and Murcia. The Costa del Sol requires more precision than the Pacific, where the Kamchatka quake was quickly responded to, with no fatalities reported.

Local authorities would carry out emergency evacuations guided by municipal plans in 14 Malaga municipalitys. Algarrobo, Benalmádena, and Vélez-Málaga, among others, have detailed plans to identify evacuation routes and safe assembly points. Emergency services including police, firemen, and Cruz Roja will focus on the vulnerable populations while residents are encouraged to avoid driving in order to keep roads free. The cartography of the plan uses data from European Space Agency to ensure that evacuees will be directed to areas which are not floodable, like elevated areas or at least four story buildings.

How prepared is the Costa del Sol for a Tsunami alert?

Plan de Emergencia is centered on public awareness. The Guía Didáctica de Tsunami encourages families to prepare emergency kits with radios, torches, and first-aid supplies and to establish meeting points. How many families have actually taken this step? Drills, like the 2021 regional simulation and Rincón de la Victoria’s practical exercises, have improved local readiness without causing panic. “Andalucía is prepared,” Sanz asserted, citing the region’s pioneering status as Spain’s first autonomous community with a tsunami plan. Yet, UNESCO claims that only Chipiona in Cádiz is fully “Tsunami Ready,” suggesting a gap in the Costa del Sol that needs to be closed.

The Costa del Sol economy is challenged by holidaymakers. EsAlert multilingual alerts are designed to help bridge the gap between tourists unfamiliar with local protocol and seismic activity on Spain’s coast. After a tsunami, the authorities will inspect buildings, remove debris and restore services. They will rely on support from emergency services and military personnel. The long-term plan includes improving risk maps and upgrading early warning systems that rival global standards.

What is the future?

The moderate tsunami risk on the Costa del Sol is in contrast to the slow pace at which government and experts warn the public and educate them. Lisbon’s tsunami of 1755 serves as an important reminder to the Mediterranean’s destructive potential. While the Plan de Emergencia equips Málaga to respond swiftly, ongoing education and infrastructure improvements are vital. The recent Pacific tsunami scare is fading, but the Costa del Sol needs to remain vigilant and ready for the rare, but real, threat of a Tsunami.